3.27 inches of rain but no White Christmas this year

Putnam County may only be dreaming of a White Christmas right now, but had Friday and Saturday temperatures been colder, we might be up to our elbows in icicles and snowballs for the holiday.

The two-day rainfall storm total recorded outside Greencastle by local weather observer Diana Foust topped 3.25 inches, she told the Banner Graphic Sunday.

Foust registered 1.62 inches of rain when she read her gauges at 7 a.m. Saturday and another 1.65 inches on Sunday morning, making a two-day total of 3.27 inches.

Some places in Indiana topped five inches of rain over the same period, including Bloomington at 5.2 inches and Mooresville at 5.12.

All the precipitation fell as rain with temperatures ranging from around 60 degrees at times Friday to the mid 30s on Sunday morning.

Had that come down as snow, the Greencastle area could have been buried by somewhere between 22 and 30 inches of weekend white stuff, according to the old formula of an inch of rain equals 7-10 inches of snow.

Of course, it's not that the area has been lacking for snowfall in 2013. Foust has already measured a total of 8.55 inches of snow to date this December.

The largest amount she recorded was 5.5 inches at 7 a.m. on Friday, Dec. 6 with the next deepest amount of 2.25 inches falling on Dec. 14.

Last December, meanwhile, produced 10.2 inches of snow, while the entire winter 2011-12 saw only 9.25 inches of snow fall in Putnam County.

The Indianapolis area normally experiences 25.9 inches of snow for the season. On average, central Indiana also sees 8.6 inches of snow during January, 6.5 in February and 2.6 in March.

But with all that December snow now melted and washed away in the flood, what are the chances of a White Christmas (described by the National Weather Service as any day with at least a trace of snow on the ground, or experiencing at least a trace falling)?

The last Christmas on which the Indianapolis area saw snow on the ground was last year in 2012, with a trace of snow on the ground. Near-blizzard conditions arrived the following day on Dec. 26, however, producing 7.5 inches of snow at the Indianapolis airport.

What is the probability of having either a trace or more of snow falling, or a trace or more already on the ground on Dec. 25?

Since 1871, that has happened 83 times, which gives central Indiana an overall probability of just under 60 percent. That means that six out of every 10 years, on average, will see a White Christmas either via some snow falling or some snow already on the ground for Christmas Day.

However, the forecast for Christmas 2013 does not call for any snow at this time.