Are you dreaming of a white Christmas?

Monday, December 21, 2020
It was a winter wonderland on the Christmas display in the courtyard of Cole Apartments on East Washington Street less than a week ago, but the history is not on the side of having a “white Christmas” in 2020.
Banner Graphic/BRAND SELVIA

Dreaming of a white Christmas for this year? Then you’ll want to read on. The National Weather Services offers some historical information on the occurrence of a White Christmas in Indianapolis.

There are several ways to define a white Christmas. For the purposes of our historical look back, we’ll include a white Christmas as any day that has either at least a trace of snow on the ground, or experiences at least a trace of snow falling that day. In more general terms, we’ll define a white Christmas as any Christmas Day that the Indianapolis area sees snow.

So what is the chance of at least a trace of snow falling in the Indianapolis area on Christmas Day? Well, snowfall records on Christmas day have been kept in the Indianapolis area since 1871. And in that 149-year period of record, a trace of snow (or more) has fallen 67 times. This could be equated to a 45 percent chance of at least a trace of snow falling on Christmas Day.

Another possibility for a white Christmas would be if there was at least a trace of snow already on the ground. This could be old snow from a week ago, or just the day before. Snow depth records don’t go quite as far back, and these were started in 1898.

In that 122-year span, there has been at least a trace of snow on the ground on Christmas Day a total of 59 times. This could be equated to a 48 percent chance of at least a trace of snow on the ground on Christmas Day. For a more robust covering on the ground, there has been an inch or greater of snow on the ground on Christmas Day a total of 34 times, which equates to a 28 percent chance to have this much snow on the ground on Dec. 25.

With both possibilities for a White Christmas explored, what is our final chance? What would our probability be of having either a trace or more of snow falling, or a trace or more already on the ground?

Since 1871, this has happened a total of 85 times, where either the snow has fallen or already been on the ground. This gives us an overall probability of 57 percent, meaning that nearly six out of every 10 years, on average, will see either some snow falling or some snow already on the ground for Christmas Day.

The last Christmas that saw snow on the ground in Indianapolis was in 2017. The last time that snow fell on Christmas Day also occurred in 2017 when 0.1 inch fell.

So if a white Christmas is your dream, then you’ll probably take heart in the fact that more often than not, there will be at least a few flakes around to greet us come Christmas Day.

Meanwhile, the warmest maximum temperature recorded on Christmas Day was 64 in 1893. Christmas Day 2019 registered a high of 62 degrees.

The coldest low temperature was -15 in 1983, one of five times below-zero temperatures were recorded on Christmas Day.

Respond to this story

Posting a comment requires free registration: