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Rice Poised to Rebound?Posted Friday, January 11, 2013, at 3:19 PM
Corn, wheat and soybeans are the headline-grabbing grains for most US commodities traders, who largely ignore rice. This is primarily because the United States is a minor rice producer and consumer, making that market less relevant to US farmers and consumers. Nonetheless, the sleepy US rice market can experience wild swings if global production and consumption patterns change.
Prices have been relatively stable near fifteen cents per pound for the last year, but some analysts believe that heavy Chinese buying could cause the US market to come to life. Approximately 40% of the US rice crop is exported to foreign countries, primarily to Mexico and Turkey. US rice farmers are currently unable to sell to the growing Chinese market, although there are changes underway that indicate that the world's largest rice consumer could soon open its doors to US exports.
As of midday Friday, rough rice for March delivery, traded in Chicago, was worth 15.22 cents per pound, down nearly 40% from the all-time high of 24.68 cents made in 2008.
USDA Report Rallies Corn
A USDA report released at 11 AM CST on Friday showed increasing demand for corn and led to projections that the US will run dangerously low on corn before this fall's crop is harvested. Prices rallied as much as 24 cents (+3.4%) on Friday, with corn for March delivery trading for $7.20 per bushel at noon.
Japanese Yen Falls, Euro Rises
After much anticipation, the Japanese government announced a new stimulus package Friday. The stimulus package will amount to 10.3 trillion Yen (over $110 billion) in new government spending aimed at stopping deflation and reviving the struggling Japanese economy. The stimulus package effort was led by the newly elected Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe who has vowed to renew Japanese economic competitiveness by weakening the Japanese Yen so that Japanese goods can become cheaper in the world market. It is widely believed that the new stimulus package will be paid for by new yen printed by the Bank of Japan, and will therefore lead to higher inflation in the island nation.
During the week, the Japanese Yen fell to 1.12 cents (-1.5%), the lowest price in two and a half years.
Unlike the Yen, which has been in a sharp downtrend, the Euro currency exploded upward this week following reports that the European Central Bank would not lower interest rates as expected. One Euro currency was worth 1.3333 US dollars late Friday morning.
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Alex Breitinger, a 2009 graduate of DePauw University, is a commodity futures broker with Breitinger & Sons, LLC in Valparaiso. He can be reached at 800-411-FUTURES (3888) or online at www.indianafutures.com.