Commodity Boom

It has been a strong two weeks–two months for most commodity futures that are actively traded. Gold led the precious metal band higher this week, making new all-time highs and closing above $2150/oz on Wednesday for the first time ever.

The soft commodities including cocoa, cotton, sugar, coffee and OJ are not in perfect unison, but by and large are either trading near historical highs or have at least had a positive week.

Stock Indices continue to thrive with the S&P setting new all-time highs above 5150 this week and the Dow Jones resting near its all-time highs around the 39,000 mark as well.

The energy markets aren’t a perfect match for the commodity boom theme, but they are stable and generally at higher prices historically. No one is going to confuse the natural gas market for a booming market. After the run-up in 2022 natural gas futures were shoved back into the hole from whence they came, like a groundhog who only knows a world with the sun at its back. Natural gas futures dropped below $3.50/million BTUs in February 2023 and have only made an appearance above that mark one time in the last year. Last month a low of $1.52 was achieved, but this week the April natural gas futures touched the $2 mark for the first time since dropping below it on Feb. 7.

In the livestock sector, cattle prices have rebounded since the beginning of the year to come within a stone's throw of the all-time highs set back in September. The lean hog market, which had been under pressure and underperforming as compared to the beef sector, has also rallied 15-20 percent since the first of the year.

Finally, we come to the grains. Since the first of the year, the grain markets have done nothing but go lower … until the last two weeks. The corn market has shown some signs of a bottom having been made, with a round of short covering from fund positions that were record net short last week and some follow-through this week. Grain prices lived the high life the previous two years, and it is no surprise that a pull-back was looming at some point. If historical price relationships are to be reached again across the commodity landscape (where no cross-commodity relationships have to exist or occur for long), you would assume the grains could have some more air put in the balloon or the rest of the space will have some air let out.

Have a comment or question? Please reach out to derrick.hermesch@pinionglobal.com or call at 785-338-9605.