
Commodity Futures File
Opinions are solely the writer’s. Walt Breitinger is a commodity futures broker in Valparaiso, Ind. He can be reached at (800) 411-3888 or www.indianafutures.com. This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell any market.
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Supreme Court Rules Against EPA
Posted Saturday, May 27, 2023, at 10:38 AMIn an unanimous ruling this week, our country’s highest court overturned one of their earlier decisions regarding a contested habitat in northern Idaho. The case, ongoing since 2007, involved a farmer who had backfilled a wetland the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) designated as “connected to waters of the United States.” The EPA considered it a violation of the Clean Water Act. ... -
Grains Drop on Supply, Better Weather
Posted Friday, May 19, 2023, at 3:55 PMPlanting progressed, the U.S. dollar strengthened and China canceled some U.S. corn purchases. All of which continued downward price pressure on corn, wheat and soybeans. Roughly 65 percent of corn and 49 percent of beans have already been planted this spring. ... -
Silver Gets Smashed
Posted Sunday, May 14, 2023, at 10:56 AMGold and silver sustained sharp losses. Silver was hit particularly hard in a wave of liquidation. So the near two-day decline from Thursday’s high to Friday’s low was one of the largest declines in silver seen in years. The April Consumer Price Index rose 4.9 percent from a year earlier, indicating continued decline from a peak of 9.1 percent in June of 2022. ... -
Wheat Flies on Drone Attack
Posted Friday, May 5, 2023, at 3:29 PMWheat prices finally woke up and reversed mid-week as reports, and then photos, circulated of two drones striking the Kremlin. President Putin immediately blamed the U.S. and Ukraine. Those countries denied responsibility. While most attention focused on who orchestrated the attack and what Moscow might do in response, farmers and traders were quick to worry about the tenuous wheat exportation agreement for the Black Sea. ... -
Crude Blasts Up as OPEC Cuts
Posted Friday, April 7, 2023, at 11:59 AMThe opening excitement of last week’s commodity and financial markets was a $5-per-barrel explosion in crude oil prices. The blast came in response to a pledge from the OPEC nations plus Russia to cut production by 70,000 barrels per day. Iraq’s blocking of Kurdistan’s crude shipments helped to send West Texas crude over $80 per barrel for the first time in a month. ... -
Cattle Bolt on Low Supplies
Posted Friday, March 31, 2023, at 3:31 PMLive cattle futures made a run for a record rise in prices in a jump of eight cents per pound in less than eight days. Second-quarter beef production is expected to be down over six percent compared to last year. This year’s cattle inventory has declined because of drought-forced liquidation for the past two years. ... -
Beans Smashed, Wheat Sprouts
Posted Friday, March 24, 2023, at 3:42 PMSoybeans saw heavy liquidation from funds, fears of recession and fears of big Brazilian supplies and exports. The decline in palm, rapeseed, canola and petroleum-based oil prices added pressure on soybean oil as well. Wheat, on the other hand, rose dramatically on Friday on continued fears that dry weather in the upper Midwest will cause low winter wheat yields. ... -
Crude Crashes
Posted Friday, March 17, 2023, at 4:16 PMWest Texas oil futures sank more than $11 per barrel during the week, with April delivery crude hitting a low of $65.17 on Friday. The crash sped up midweek as Silicon Valley Bank failed, causing Wall Street and businesses on Main Street to fear recession. ... -
Stock Futures Get Smashed
Posted Friday, March 10, 2023, at 4:22 PMOn Wednesday, stock index futures were lower in the overnight trade but recovered briefly after jobless claims were higher than expected. “Bad news is good news” has been the mantra for stock investors since higher unemployment has raised expectations that the Federal Reserve will stop increasing interest rates as much. ... -
Double Trouble from Hurricanes
Posted Friday, March 3, 2023, at 4:38 PMA new study released in the journal “Nature Climate Change” last week predicts consecutive hurricanes and other tropical storms will occur more frequently. The study out of Princeton University concludes that as the Earth warms further from burning fossil fuels, intense storms are more likely to occur together in the same regions. ... -
Cattle: Frozen and Mad
Posted Friday, February 24, 2023, at 4:30 PMCattle in the world’s two largest producing nations are in crises and, therefore, for the world’s largest beef importer as well. The latest U.S. blizzard is escalating the cattle shortage. Unlike hogs, chickens and the humans who eat them, beef cattle cannot seek shelter to fatten up or even survive, as they are raised outdoors. ... -
Metals Tarnished by Dollar Strength
Posted Friday, February 17, 2023, at 3:13 PMA rise in the producer price index and Thursday’s hot jobs data prompted the Federal Reserve to warn of further rate hikes, and that lifted the U.S. dollar. The stronger dollar and fears of more aggressive rate hikes knocked the legs from under gold and silver Thursday and Friday morning. Stock indexes followed the down direction at the end of the week, with the NASDAQ staging the largest declines. Crude, too, which is often correlated to the direction of gold, fell hard on Friday morning... -
Wheat Wakes Up on Russian News
Posted Friday, February 10, 2023, at 3:18 PMGeopolitics heavily influenced wheat this week. Russia cut back on oil production, which could hurt Ukraine if it limits shipping out of the Black Sea. They are unhappy with the execution of the export deal, emphasizing that most of the wheat being exported through the Black Sea is headed for wealthy European countries instead of the most needy, such as those in Africa. ... -
Orange Juice Catches on Fire
Posted Saturday, February 4, 2023, at 10:40 AMFrozen concentrated OJ has become the hottest game in town among investors and speculators, at least among the commodities staples Americans depend on. The meteoric rise of the liquid gold accompanied the smallest crop in almost 90 years because of a combination of frost damage, hurricanes and the continued plague of citrus greening disease. ... -
Traders High on Coffee and Sugar
Posted Friday, January 27, 2023, at 3:32 PMCoffee and sugar prices were the most energized commodities out of all agricultural markets this week. Better demand, reflected by stronger U.S. GDP, stimulated buying from speculators. Global demand, which is also on the mend, helped Arabica coffee futures gain ground. Weather problems in South and Central America have caused coffee stockpiles to remain low. Sugar prices will now largely depend on India’s sugar production, which will be affected by weather there... -
More Gas, Lower Prices
Posted Friday, January 20, 2023, at 4:04 PMLower natural gas prices should provide a break for homeowners and industrial users, such as fertilizer producers or electricity generators. The mild, somewhat warm winter so far has left both the U.S and European storage much larger than had been expected. ... -
Atmospheric Rivers Drench California
Posted Friday, January 13, 2023, at 3:24 PMThe West Coast megadrought, described as the worst in 1,200 years, seemed to be abruptly broken. A series of storms swamped California and brought needed relief to some areas. Thousands experienced flooding, overflowing reservoirs, mudslides and power outages. ... -
Two Kings Unthroned
Posted Saturday, January 7, 2023, at 11:41 AMThe two biggest commodity markets as determined by dollar value traded were the two to tumble the most this week. Crude, the world’s king of commodities, had been over $130 per barrel in March 2022. It had a bounce up toward $82 on Tuesday but plunged more than $9 by Thursday. Fears of a Covid-slowed China economy was seen as one cause. Improved relations between President Biden and Saudi Arabia played a role as well... -
2022 Year-End Review
Posted Friday, December 30, 2022, at 4:04 PM1The war in Ukraine, coronavirus, droughts, floods, fires and sudden rampant inflation combined to make 2022 one of the wildest commodity and financial futures markets in decades. Farmers, miners and other producers, processors, end users, shippers, investors and speculators were affected in new ways. Everyone’s understanding of geo-politics, virology, climatology and even the psychology of the Federal Reserve in setting interest rate policy was challenged... -
Zelenskyy Asks Congress for Aid
Posted Friday, December 23, 2022, at 4:22 PMUkrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed Congress on his first trip abroad since Russia invaded Ukraine. Congress has approved $50 billion in aid since February for financial, humanitarian and military purposes. The role of Ukraine and Russia in grain production and exports and Russia's control of natural gas has focused commodity users and investors on how our legislators will respond...
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