Iran and Israel traded missile/drone fire in the last week which could be the beginning of a more serious geo-political issue, with the effects reaching far beyond the Iron Dome. Or it could just be another brick in the wall of Middle East scuffles that bring pain and discomfort in the short term for those immediately affected, but change nothing fundamentally in the long term for themselves or the rest of the world...

Inflation numbers reported this week showed the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was up 0.4 percent in March, which was higher than expectations and higher than February’s pace, putting the annual rate of inflation at 3.5 percent above last month's reported 3.2 percent. Core (CPI) was up 0.4 percent as well, though the annual figure remained unchanged at 3.8 percent...

The front-month gold future contract reached $2,300/ounce this week, a new all-time high and a gain of 11 percent since the start of the year. To put things in perspective, if you pull up a monthly chart of gold you can see a steady climb in value from the early 2000s that accelerated in 2008 after the home mortgage crisis and the government bailout packages that came with it...

May cocoa futures traded as high as $8,900/metric ton this week, which is more than double the value of where it started the year at an already historically high level. The short supply story due to adverse weather impacting the West African nations of the Ivory Coast and Ghana are well publicized at this point and have been for some time. It was first reported here on Feb. 9 and was a widespread discussion at the time in media spaces that follow commodities...

The March Consumer Price Index (CPI) report covering the month of February was released this week. Core CPI was up 0.4 percent month on month (MoM) and 3.8 percent year on year (YoY). That is an increase from the 0.3 percent shown for the month of January...

It has been a strong two weeks–two months for most commodity futures that are actively traded. Gold led the precious metal band higher this week, making new all-time highs and closing above $2150/oz on Wednesday for the first time ever...

The Commitments of Traders report from last Friday, Feb. 23 revealed that managed money was short 340,732 contracts of corn. This was a new record short position for the funds, passing the old record of 322,215 contracts set back in late-April 2019. ...

The S&P, Dow Jones and Nasdaq indices have moved sharply higher since last November, with all three markets making new all-time highs in the month of February. Equities took a step back from new highs last week and had the look of a market that might have peaked temporarily and due for a break. ...

A majority of the soft commodities, the label applied to the basket of commodities including cocoa, sugar, coffee, orange juice and cotton, have exhibited a significant increase in price since the start of the year. The futures rally has been the most significant in the cocoa and sugar markets, with both seeing a 20 percent-or-better increase in total price since the first of the year and cocoa trading to all-time highs of $6,039 per metric ton this week...

Cocoa futures prices made new all-time highs on Friday, with the March Cocoa futures soaring to $6,030/metric ton before reversing course and trading lower. Abnormally dry conditions in West Africa, where more than half of the world’s cocoa is produced in the Ivory Coast and Ghana, is the fundamental push behind this price move. ...

USDA cattle inventory numbers were released mid-week, and the numbers were in line with estimates, but friendly in the sense that they confirmed what was thought to be known, but had yet to be revealed, in the placement numbers of the monthly Cattle on Feed reports. ...

June live cattle futures were up $4.075 for the week settling at $178.45/cwt, which is a noteworthy level. The 200-day moving average is $179/cwt, the 100-day moving average is $178.5/cwt and the 50-percent retracement level is $178.4/cwt. The 50-percent retracement came from the contract highs put in at $194/cwt on Sept. 15 to the lows of $162.775/cwt on Dec. 6. All three of these levels were hit today … on a Friday, with a positive close...

A popular story making the rounds this week was the population of China decreasing for the second year in a row. Births fell to a record low in 2023, while deaths reached a record high and the overall population fell by just over two million to 1.41 billion. (The population decrease in 2022 amounted to roughly 300,00, according to Bloomberg.)...

The January WASDE and Quarterly Stocks Report was released today, and it put what may be the final nail in the coffin for 2023-24 grain bulls. Production estimates of both corn and soybeans for the 2023 crop year were raised between .5 percent and one percent in total, which doesn’t sound like much, but it allows for the projected 2023-24 ending stocks of corn to remain comfortably above two billion bushels at 2.162 billion. ...

The Middle East and trouble are no strangers, but the last three months of 2023 saw an increase in turmoil and hot spots to the point of boiling over. The most obvious is the bombardment of the Gaza Strip by Israel, after the Hamas terrorist attack on Oct. ...

In Germany, renewable energies will have covered almost 52 percent of gross electricity consumption in 2023, according to the Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg. This is an increase from 46 percent in 2022 and the first time to see it clear 50 percent in total. ...

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell addressed the press on Wednesday and the message was clear: Prepare for rate cuts in 2024. The Fed held steady on interest rate movement for this month, but the press conference carried a more dovish tone following a consistent diet of hawkish-to-neutral attitude in the previous monthly pressers. The key line from Powell that stuck out was:...

Chicago wheat futures were up eight days in a row coming into Friday morning. On Tuesday, Nov. 28, March Chicago wheat futures came off a low of $5.57/bu to get to as high as $6.49/bu earlier this week. China has been in the market recently making significant purchases, with four out of five days this week seeing flash sale announcements totaling 1.12 million metric tons. ...

OPEC members met this week and agreed to an additional one million barrels a day in production cuts for 2024. This goes along with an extension of Saudi Arabia’s voluntary production cut of the same amount into 2024 as well. The meeting of OPEC nations was originally scheduled for Sunday and pushed back to Thursday, as reports indicated some member nations may not have been in complete agreement with the proposed cuts. ...

Chinese President Xi Jinping is wrapping up his first visit to the U.S. in six years in what has been described as a productive week for U.S.-Chinese relations. President Xi and President Biden met in San Francisco both privately and publicly while attending the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) annual summit. ...