Interest Rate Daze

Inflation numbers reported this week showed the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was up 0.4 percent in March, which was higher than expectations and higher than February’s pace, putting the annual rate of inflation at 3.5 percent above last month's reported 3.2 percent. Core (CPI) was up 0.4 percent as well, though the annual figure remained unchanged at 3.8 percent.

The Fed’s position is always one of that between a rock and a hard place, but the ability to maneuver through the tumultuous times of the past few years has been somewhat obvious and blameless. Disagree with the blameless part if you want, as the current Fed administration could have started raising interest rates sooner, or not lowered them as much as they did with the initial Covid outbreak, but their hands were probably tied on a lot of the decisions made and the most obvious and logical path forward presented itself to them. They took it with a level head and steady hand.

The last four months have been a little less obvious and a little less steady ever since the Fed came out with a timetable prediction for lowering interest rates. In his December presser, Chairman Powell stated, “If the economy evolves as projected, the median participant projects that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 4.6 percent at the end of 2024, 3.6 percent at the end of 2025 and 2.9 percent at the end of 2026.”

A timetable prediction may not have been necessary, as annual inflation rates had yet to see a move below three percent. However, it could prove useful. It has provided a dry run of sorts for the economy to react to the idea that interest rates will soon be lowered, versus actually lowering interest rates. It’s much easier to take your hand off the hammer used to break the glass in case of emergency, then it is to fix the broken glass. What remains to be seen is whether the Fed has pulled their hand off the hammer for sure and how the economy will fully react when/if they do.

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